The March 2010 issue of Atlantic magazine had an interesting article on "How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America."  http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/03/how-a-new-jobless-era-will-transform-america/7919 . Author Don Peck pulls together information from many places-including scholarly sources familiar to NCFR. This article caught my eye because of two family scholars he quotes-Glen Elder and Kathryn Edin (speakers at NCFR conferences)-as well as input from Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman and other experts.  

Peck's thesis is that this recession is different-and coming out of it is going to be an arduous process with unprecedented outcomes.  Some facets of society may never look the same, from the macro economy to micro-level family dynamics. It's not over 'til it's over, and we will not know the fallout from this recession until things turn around. As such, Peck's prognostications are educated guesses.  But this piece resounded so closely to what I am seeing in my own circle of family, friends, and colleagues-and what I am reading far and wide. I know one guy whose company had an across the board 5% pay cut and several others whose organizations  have instituted several days of unpaid furlough. There are deep-seated fears that are reminiscent of Psych 101's learned helplessness. I've heard those around me say desperate things like, "I can't keep re-inventing myself." This is the inexpert opinion of one blogger who's operating from a healthy dose of anecdote, but here goes-this one feels way different.  Bloomberg online agrees with me, calling this recession the worst since the Great Depression. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNivTjr852TI

As a 13 year old, I remember the recession of 1973 when my father was laid off briefly. Back then, a layoff was an actual "lay off."  My dad was not out long and was called back by the same employer. Layoffs now are kindly-worded terminations. As a young adult, I graduated with my B.A. in 1982 in the depth of that recession. It was horrible. Psych degrees are like noses-everybody's got one. There were 65 applicants for my first job which was clerical and didn't require a degree. I clearly remember the recession circa 1991 when my husband and I had a new mortgage and a preschooler. I started my Master's degree that fall-our family's financial future was a big factor in that decision. Things were pretty scary in all three slumps. But this downturn frightens me more. The September 2008 meltdown scared the life out of me. Just a few weeks ago, I read an account of that week by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson as taken from his memoir. He called his wife from work to say he didn't know if the nation would survive the crisis. Then he had an attack of dry heaves. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/andrew-clark-on-america/2010/feb/01/lehmanbrothers-bear-stearns and http://www.observer.com/2010/wall-street/hank-paulsons-dry-heave . I find it fascinating that Hank Paulson's first sleepless night was when Bear Stearns collapsed, a few months before the meltdown. I was up that night too and have proof-I blogged about it.  http://community.ncfr.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=42

Another observation that many have been making is that this recession has been especially unkind to men. Construction, manufacturing and finance have been employment sectors that have been hit hard, and these are male-dominated professions. There's been much said about the role reversals that this dynamic has introduced to families as women take on the sole or primary breadwinner position.  http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120146408

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/business/06women.html?pagewanted=all

http://www.boston.com/community/moms/articles/2010/02/18/role_adjustments

Yet one more prediction is that divorce rates are artificially low right now-the thought is that people can't afford to get divorced-that after the recession there may be a spike of divorces that represent the backlog. Divorce fees are just the beginning.  What if all that's left to divide is debt on an upside down mortgage? Here is a Washington Post article on the subject, which quotes NCFR members Andrew Cherlin and Brad Wilcox. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/21/AR2010032103139.html?hpid=topnews

I'm no expert. But I know where you can hear an expert discussion on this topic. Come to NCFR's annual conference in November. We will have two family scholars speaking-University of Wisconsin economist Maria Cancian and the aforementioned Glen Elder-who will be talking about just this subject-the recession and its impact on families. Dr. Elder, from the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, conducted landmark longitudinal research on the effects of the Great Depression on families. His book Children of the Great Depression is a great read.  

http://www.amazon.com/Children-Great-Depression-25th-Anniversary/dp/0813333423/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1270655471&sr=8-1.  

Are there Great Depression parallels to what Glen Elder is observing in this recession?  Here's a Wall Street Journal article that summarizes a few of his thoughts. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123491027420603457.html . Here is an MP3 interview with Dr. Cancian here: http://businessmatters.net/2009/10 . Come to Minneapolis and hear them together in an interactive "fireside chat." Conference information is here.